In its latest market update on June 9, trading firm QCP Capital told market participants to gear up for macro-fueled price action for BTC and ETH.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price stuck?
QCP Capital: U.S. crypto “mudslinging” to continue
The dust is continuing to settle on this week’s main macro stories — lawsuits against exchanges Binance and Coinbase from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
More upheaval will come in future, QCP believes, as the macro environment from next week onward becomes much more unpredictable.
The SEC and Chair Gary Gensler, however, even if they continue to go after crypto, will not spark the mass price depreciation that some fear.
“Once again trigger-happy Gensler and his SEC cronies wielded their ‘securities’ threat on their favourite whipping industry. However as we have maintained before, BTC/ETH will continue to treat the SEC as a toothless adversary – especially as it becomes crystal clear that the term ‘security’ will not apply to either,” it wrote.
“As more and more such far-fetched SEC complaints are filed, it becomes increasingly clear all they are seeking are sensational headlines leading to a final fat settlement. After all, Gensler has proven the most capitalist of all previous regulators.”
What could put the cat among the pigeons, QCP warns, is the U.S. Department of Justice or other arms of the establishment.
“And if one of them gets involved, then the case becomes more serious and all bets are off,” it continued.
“Nonetheless we expect more mudslinging from the Biden administration to continue on crypto, and even ramp up into election season next year.”
The days following the exchange lawsuits have so far seen crypto market sentiment withstand the pressure, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index staying rooted at 50/100 — “neutral” territory.
Bitcoin price consolidates into “action packed” week
Beyond that SEC itself, meanwhile, next week’s macro data reports could provide a trigger of their own.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for May is due June 13, along with a Federal Reserve policy update, which will decide the next step for benchmark interest rates.
“Going into next week, we have an action packed macro week as well – with US CPI, the June FOMC (including quarterly Fed rate projections) and other huge central bank meetings all taking place,” QCP noted.
The analysis also flagged changes to the Treasury General Account, apt to suck liquidity out of the monetary system and in doing so present a potential headwind for risk assets across the board.
That theory is on the radar for other well-known crypto figures, including former BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, who has been monitoring it since the start of 2023.
QCP’s optimistic perspective comes as BTC/USD continues to tread water near key price support levels, with the 200-week EMA in particular.
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